Sunday, February 1, 2009

India's Response to Nuclear Terrorism

This is hilarious, but a commentary on our response to terrorism.

Parody on Indian Response

Pardon me. but I am thinking of (God forbid) a day when a nuke explodes in an Indian city. Maybe you shoud pray that you are killed by that nuke rather than be exposed to reactions of those left alive:

The news the next day will be

"Massive blast in Jingorampur"

"A mysterious blast has devastated large areas of Jingorampur. The blast which occred at 10 AM caused the ground to shake and people in surrounding villages reported seeing a bright flash. People ran out their houses suspecting that an Earthquake had occurred.

The district officials in the nearby city of Whacknagar said that although all communication had been cut off with Jingorampur - there was nothing to "be concerned about. This is a common occurrence due to power failures in Summer. The official said everything was under control. He confirmed that an earthquake could have occurred as the town was near a seismic zone - but there were no reports of any deaths so far."

A few hours later..

"Jingorampur flattened"

Thousands of people have been killed in what appears to have been a massive earthquake in Jingorampur..relief efforts are on..The central government is siezed of the matter and an ex gratia payment of Rs 10,000 for the families of the bereaved has been announced."

The next day

"Death and misery in Jingorampur Quake"

"Eyewitnesss reported a blast and many people have been severely burned. Even people on fields have been killed. "I was reminded of pictures of the tsunami" said one witness. Jingorampur is located 400 Km from the coast. and a tsunami has been ruled out."

Some people have blamed the Army which had an ammunition dump in the area. An army recue team member denied this. Asked why the Army team were seen wearing protective suits and masks the response was because the disaster was caused by a nuclear bomb explosion"


A day later..

"Has Jingorampur been nuked?"

"Reports from the Army and defence ministry sate that the disaster was caused by a nuclear explosion. NGOs were quick to blame the Atomic Energy Commission in India which is known to have a poor safety record.

A demonstration in Delhi to protest agaisnt slow relief efforts was lathi charged by the police. One protester blamed Pakistan for the disaster. This was rejected by the misnister of state for lame excuses. Anti national elements of the right wing are trying to harm the peace process."

One week later...

"It has been confirmed that Jingorampur has been devastated by a nuclear bomb. A high power governmental enquiry has been constituted, headed by retired chief justice Blahblah to try and establish the source of the bomb. In the meantime the government has asked the people to maintain communal harmony. It thanked the government of Pakistan for its offer of aid, and rejected reports in the US media that a rogue Pakistani nuclear bomb had been exploded. "The US has so many bombs - it could have been a US bomb" said a minister - not wishing to be named""

Four days later

"Sehwag dropped from Cricket tour of Australia due to injury"
"Price of kerosene not to be raised even as Oil prices rise to $120 a barrel"
"TV returns to Jingopura - the first signs of normality"..

Did someone say "cycle of life" somewhere?

Monday, January 26, 2009

Register to Vote

REGISTER TO VOTE

We in the middle class always whine about politicians not delivering. Now is the time to choose your politicians. India is going to have general elections in April or May. I will urge everyone to register to vote and get your name on the voter list

Please register on

http://www.jaagore.com

jaagore.com website makes it very easy to register. All immigrant workers and students can find it useful in registering themselves.

Jaagore.com is providing other services such as

1. Information on your polling Booth location on the date of voting
2. Tracking on your registration application through SMS service

Please spread the word around.

Abhishek

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Indian Police Mash-a-allah

Guys,

I have been writing a lot about the terrorism problem in India. Today I saw a video that is very disturbing.

This video shows the complete malaise in the Indian system.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Svg9CBmiPeQ

Please have a look at the video and make your conclusion. To give you a background. This is a fight between two castes in a Chennai University. Mind you University.

You will look at the brutality of the assault and the complete inaction of the police. With a police like this can we hope to fight terrorism. I dont think so.

This is very disheartening.

Abhishek

Sunday, December 14, 2008

Strategic Analysis of Terrorism in India

Introduction

I want to understand the strategic significance of terrorism emanating from Pakistan. Below is a small analysis of my own on the geo-political angles of terrorism emanating from Pakistan

Lets start from where this terrorism began. We have two seperate problems that seemed to have merged into one now.

1. India- Pakistan animosity manifested in Kashmir
2. Afghan Problem

India-Pakistan Anomisity in Kashmir

I dont think I need to elaborate on the origins of the problem. But the problem burst into the seams in late 80's and early 90's when pakistan started supporting Kashmiri fighters against Indian armed forces in Kashmir. Initially groups such as JKLF (Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front) were at the fore front of the fight. Pakistan through the ISI sponsored terrorist activities inside Kashmir and used JKLF to fight their war in Kashmir. This was the first phase of terrorist activities inside India . Kashmir burned for the entire decade with a very high human tool on Kashmiris, but finally that phase got over sometime around 1995 when the first assembly elections were held in Kashmir after terrorism broke out there. So the Kashmiri origin of the problem lasted for some 10 years starting from 1987 - 1995.

Beyond this point terrorism in Kashmir was sustained through "cross border terrorism" with ample support from Pakistani Military. That phase of terrorism culminated into military invasion of Kargil by the Pakistani Army. India responded to Kargil vigorously and discredited Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism inside Kashmir in the international community. Pakistani Army withdrew from Kashmir and now Indian Army is well entrenched strategically to not let Pakistan Army carry out operations inside Kashmir.

Beyond 1999 (Kargil) Pakistan used another tactic. As it saw that Kashmir based terrorist like Harkat-ul Mujahideen (HuM), United Jihad Council (UJC) were not able to dent India's resolve to hold onto Kashmir, it started training a punjabi organization Jamat-ud Dawa and created a military wing named Laskar-e Taiyba (LET) . I must say here that I dont have enough information about the origins of LET. JuD has its headquarters in Muridke(close to Lahore, probably less than 100kms from Amritsar). Now LET is the one organization that has been the most successful in carrying out attacks against India. LET carried out several audacious attacks inside Kashmir and inside India. To list a few attacks that is credited to LET.

1. Kaluchak attack on Indian Military Family members (May 2002)
2. Kashmir Parliament Attacks (??)
3. Indian Parliament Attack (Dec 2001)
4. Red Fort Attack (Dec 2000)
5. Mumbai Commuter Train Attack (July 2006)
6. Mumbai Commando Attack (Nov 2008)

It is also believed that the recent Indian Mujahideen group had been getting material and logistical help from LET that was involved in a string of bomb blasts across Indian cities in the last 2 years.

So if we look at the progression of terrorist attack from 1985 to 2008, we can see an enlargement of terrorist activities into India with targets as down south as Bangalore. Organizations like LET seem to have a reach where they can literally order attacks inside India without any fear.

So a problem that originated with Pakistan's desire to wrest control on Kashmir has morphed into an India wide terrorist attack on all major cities inside India.

Afghan Problem

Afghan problem started with the invasion of Afghanistan by Russia in 1979. USA responded to that invasion and recruited Pakistan for that war. Pakistan's then president Jia-ul Haq worked with the Americans to throw out the Russians from Afghanistan. USA asked Pakistan's now notorious intelligence agency (ISI) to wage the war from Pakistan against Russians using Mujahideen (the holy warrior). The mujahideen fought with stinger missile and CIA money and drove Russians out of afghanistan. Now we know how afganistan became the staging ground to carry out the most audacious terrorist attack ever on Sep 11, 2001. So from 1989 - 2001, afghanistan turned into a place that was breeding and exporting terrorism throughout the world and especially directed against America.

The Pakistani ISI had deep interest in the afghani regime of the 90's. ISI having fought the cold war for America wanted Afghanistan to become its strategic backyard and use Afghanistan as an asset against India. Pakistan supported the Taliban regime that came out of the cold war. The Taliban regime was installed in Afghanistan in 1995 (notice the timing of shift from JKLF to HuM in Kashmir). It was pakistan's bad luck that Al Queda attacked America in 9/11. 9/11 brought America back into Afghanistan and this time with its own forces. Pakistan had virtually made Afghanistan its backyard and used it strategically to stage terrorist attacks inside India. Kashmiri terrorist used to get trained inside Afghanistan and got experience from the Afghan warriors. The terrorism in Kashmir got training, money and experience out of the afghan problem.

CIA provided lot of arms, money and motivation inside pakistan to wage the afghan war and all those assets, experience and money started getting pumped into Kashmir. Kashmir boiled throughout the 90's due to the assets that were developed from the afghan war.

9/11

9/11 happened and that brought America back into afghanistan. America drove away Taliban from Afghanistan. The taliban resettled themselves into FATA(Federally Administered Tribal Area) and NWFP (North West Frontier Province). Afghanistan has two major ethnic composition. Tajiks and Pashtuns. The Tajiks were mostly the Northern Alliance People such as Ahmed Shah Masood. The Pashtuns were the taliban who ruled over afghanistan from 1995 - 2001 and headed by Mullah Omar. The majority in Afghanistan are Pashtuns and they live in both side of the Durand Line , the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. After the taliban were driven away from afghanistan, the Hamid Karzai government was elected. Hamid Karzai is a friend of India but with minimal power inside Afghanistan.

Now the Al queda elements that settled inside Pakistan were mostly of Arab Origin. When Pervez Musharraf did the famous turn around after 9/11, he actually turned around against the Arab origin terrorist (mostly Al Queda). As Al Queda did not serve any purpose for Pakistan and indeed brought America back into the region. Pervez Musharaf and the Pakistani Army went after Arab Origin (Al Queda) terrorists and handed over a string of Al Queda leaders to America, who were lodged in Guantanamo Bay as terrorists. These terrorists were caught from both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The capture of these terrorists started from 2002 and went on till 2006. This is the period when Pakistan was the fast friend of America and President Bush and the entire world used to shower praise on Pakistan as the frontline Ally on Terrorism.

Pakistan Terrorism Problem

Till now the story is clean. Pakistani Army killing the bad guys inside its western frontier and fighting the terrorists, but the problem is pakistan's expansionist attitude. Pakistan Army reduced the pressure on the rest of the terrorist elements operating from that region, once the arab elements were eliminated. Pakistani Army/ ISI / etc/etc saw in taliban an asset that could again be used inside afghanistan. Several elements in the Pakistani establisment still believe that Americans will leave the region in near future and then the pashtun asset (Taliban) can again be used to recreate the strategic space that Pakistan enjoyed during the 90's. The prominent person who heads this thought is Hamid Gul (Former DG ISI, chief of ISI). Pervez Musharaf also intially believed in this theory but had to give up due to American Pressure on the issue. He ordered several military expedition inside the western frontier against the taliban. There were peace deals also but nothing worked. Pakistani Army was not able to eliminate the Taliban problem. There can be several reasons for such a results. First that the Pakistan Army does not want to eliminate the taliban, as they dont see it as their problem. Indeed they want to use it as an asset. There is tremendous confusion on this front as to what is exactly happening in that front. Whether the Pakistani Army is willing to eliminate those elements but is incapable of eliminating them or whether the Army is operating under pressure from America and biding for their time to get back into Afghanistan. But the fact is that the taliban problem has not been dealt by the pakistani army.

Recently we have noticed huge uptick in terrorism strikes within Pakistan. The most famous terrorist attacks within Pakistan is the Benazir Butto Assasination and the Marriot Hotel blast. We have seen terrorist strikes in NWFP , Chitral and SWAT region in pakistan. These strikes are a blow-back of the Pakistan Army's operation against the taliban element. Several taliban element who used to work with the Pakistani establishment earlier have completely turned back on the Pakistani establishment and that is why we are seeing a huge uprise in terrorist activities inside Pakistan. The origin of terrorist and reason of terrorism inside pakistan is very different from the reason of terrorism inside india.

The Afghan problem has spilled over inside pakistan. The reason for them can be several.

1. Inability of Pakistan Army to take care of that problem with the resulting blow back
2. Rogue element inside the pakistani establisment encouraging and assisting talibani people to work against pakistani army and american army.
3. Idealogical commitment within the talibani establishment to talibanize pakistan and use pakistan as a base to wage global jihad


India Pakistan Equal Equal

After the Mumbai attack there has been a lot of talk about India and Pakistan both being a victim of terrorism and that both are in the same boat. There cannot be anything farther from truth. We have seen pakistani analysts draw parallel between Marriot hotel blast and Taj hotel attack. The origins of these two attacks cannot be more different. As Indian investigations have clearly shown that most of the terrorist originate from the punjabi province of Pakistan. The Kasab guy is from Faridkot. A place very close to the indian borders. LET carried out these attacks. LET has been a pro-establishment entity all throughout its existence. Indeed LET is seen as the operational wing of ISI (Pakistan's notorious Intelligence Agency). The entire operation of LET is in POK and Punjab. So there cannot be an equal equal over here. Pakistan and India are targetted by very different terrorist organizations with very different objectives. So I completely reject the notion that India and Pakistan are in the same boat when it comes to terrorism.

Pakistan is facing terrorism because of the military operations inside FATA, NWFP under american pressure. India is facing terrorism because the establishment within pakistan is using it as a weapon against India so extract benefits from India and ultimately annex Kashmir from India or eventually disintegrate India into several parts. The LET's stated objective is to disintegrate India and to establish an islamic caliphate.


India's Response

The source of terrorism in India is the Pakistani Army and its Intelligence Services and the expansionist attitude of the establishment of Pakistan. Kashmir and Afghanistan is just a manifestation of that attitude. The same expansionist attitude was evident during the Punjab crisis also.

The Punjab crisis was dealt firmly by the Rajiv Gandhi and Narsimha Rao Government and eliminated by conducting counter terror operations inside Pakistan. India's RAW was able to eliminate all Khalistani terrorists from Pakistan and also made it very difficult for Pakistan to continue terrorist activities inside Punjab. KPS Gill along with covert counter terror operations was able to eliminate all terrorists from Punjab in 3-4 years. India has been able to take control of terrorism in Kashmir by developing a very firm counter terror policy inside Kashmir. Any terrorist who enters Kashmir is now apprehended by human and technical intelligence and then the army with special commondo force and local police eliminate the terrorist threat. Kashmir has been relatively quiet for last 5 years and we can expect further quiet in years to come.

If india has to develop a similar strategy against LET that has morphed itself into a clone of Aqueda then India should develop counter terror operations inside Pakistan and eliminate terrorist threats such as Dawood Ibrahim, LET Chief Hafeez Saeed and JEM chief Masood Azhar. Further India should develop strong spy network inside Pakistan that would help root out terror networks inside India.

Till now India has been successful in eliminating terrorist threat from Pakistan and contain terrorist threat in Kashmir. Now it is time to adopt from the approach that was used in Kashmir and Punjab and apply throughout India to defeat these terrorist threat.


Thursday, December 11, 2008

Strengthening Internal Security

What should be India's response to terrorism?. There are two ways to intiate a response.

1. Reforms within Indian Systems especially Internal Security
2. Military Response to the threat.

I believe that both these steps are very important. The Indian government has announced some steps to strengthen Internal Security. I would like to outline those steps first.

The few initial steps that have been proposed are

Setting up of National Investigation Agency (NIA)

This organization is supposed to be modelled along the structure of FBI in America. An independent director with overarching power over all states.

I want to provide a preliminary background on the need of NIA in India. In India, Law and Order is a state subject and any central investigating agency can operate in a state only at the request of state governments. In principle this is a very good idea and encourages federalism in the system, but an issue like terrorism cannot be handled at the state level. The footprints of terrorism spread across states and sometimes into Pakistan. A state government does not have the reach and resources to handle a sophisticated crime such as terrorism. An NIA will be able to piece together all the information and act promptly against terrorism and break the network of terrorists within the country.

Now, Inorder to save the NIA from becoming a clone of CBI, we need to provide this investigating agency with overarching power to investigate across all states for organised crime, terrorism, money laundrering and fake currency cases. So a special National Security Law should be passed that gives broad power to NIA to investigate suspects and to make confession in front of police admissible in court. There is a proposal to even include Narco-analysis test as admissible evidence, though I am not particularly sure that Narco-analysis test should be admissible in the court of law.

We will have to track this development very seriously and ensure that NIA is set-up right and it gets the right power to set-up an infrastructure across the country to smoke out terror cells and arrest terror suspects aggressively.

Police Reforms

Police reforms in the most important problem that has to be tackled. We have read reports of complete inaction of Mumbai Police as an organization. Thanks for brave people like Tukaram Ombale Mumbai Police was able to grab one terrorist alive, but as an organization Mumbai Police was completely unprepared for the mumbai style attack. The police in India is undertrained, underpaid and under-armed. Any terrorist with a 9mm pistol can challenge a normal policeman in any Indian city. To add salt to the wound Indian Police is normally very corrupt. But we have seen individual bravery from some exemplary individuals. The Home Ministry should initiate a series of action to improve the effectiveness of police system in India. I believe we should do the following.

1. Increase the pay of normal policeman. The recent Pay Commission has not done justice to policemen

2. Set-up state of the art training facility in every major city in India and develop a Quick Reaction Team with MP-5 guns and light weight Bullet Proof Jackets to handle any situation. In today's violent India we anyways need a force that can take a situation under control immediately and cleanse a particular Area with miscreats. I think if we have a more disciplined QRT (Quick Reaction Team) then we can avoid several incidents such as riots also. A commando Force like a SWAT team should be set-up in every major city and such a force should take control of terrorist incidents, communal incidents or organized crime.

3. Every state has a Anti-terrorist Squad (ATS). I dont know what Mumbai ATS was doing when this attack was planned or what is their jurisdiction. Mumbai ATS was blown apart in this terror strike. According to me a local intelligence unit should be connected with RAW and IB and intelligence report should reach Local ATS offices and they should take swift and prompt action on intelligence reports. In terms of intelligence, India has a huge gaping hole in its portfolio. Either RAW and IB dont provide accurate intelligence for the Local ATS office to act on, or the local ATS office does not have the capability to create actionable intelligence from the information provided. I think NIA can be very useful in this area. NIA can be the nodal agency that can work on bridging the gap between IB, RAW and local ATS pandus.

4. Patrolling should increase in Indian cities with permanent bunker facilities for Mass Transit stations, big malls and exit strategy incase of a terror attack.

5. Immediate implementation of crisis management system. It is a shame the way India responds to a terror attack. No proper channeling of ambulances, no cordoning off of affected areas and no immediate response by hospital staff. The one good thing that we have learnt is about dissemination of information about the deceased and the injured. Otherwise everything about the response to a terror strike is very primitive.

The reason why I have written this detailed blog is to prepare a list of things that is needed to be done as a first step to immediately improve on interna security. Now the task is to see that whether the government is taking action and being serious about our security.

Abhishek

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Pakistan's Terror Trail

I have made a list of terror attacks that Pakistani groups have carried out in India. This may not be a comprehensive list, but all the major attacks have been included.

2001
October 1: A car bomb explodes near the Jammu and Kashmir state assembly in Srinagar, killing 35 people and injuring 40 more.
December 13: Terrorist attack on Indian Parliament.

2002
India, January 22: Gunmen on motorcycles opened fire on guards at the American Center in Kolkata, killing five people.

2003
India, August 25: At least 48 people were killed and 150 injured in two blasts in south Mumbai - one near the Gateway of India at the other at the Zaveri Bazaar.

2004
Militants detonated a bomb that killed nine and injured about fifty others, including two elected officials. The incident occurred at a People's Democratic Party election rally at Uri. Party Chief Mehbooba Mufti was addressing the audience when the explosion took place. The Save Kashmir Movement later claimed responsibility for the blast.


2005
India, July 5: 2005 Terrorist attack on Ayodhya – Six terrorists belonging to Lashkar-e-Toiba storm the Ayodhya Ram Janmbhomi complex. Before the terrorists could reach the main disputed site, they were shot down by Indian security forces. One devotee and two policemen were injured.

India, July 28: Jaunpur train bombing: 13 are killed when militants detonate a bomb on a commuter train.

India, October 29: Multiple bomb blasts hit markets in Delhi, India, leaving at least 61 dead and more than 200 injured.

India, December 28: Two or more unidentified gunmen open fire at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, killing a retired professor of mathematics and wounding four others.


2006
India, March 7: Bombings in the Hindu holy city of Varanasi kill 28 and injure more than 100.

India, July 11: A series of explosions rock commuter trains in Mumbai, India, killing 209 and wounding another 714 civilians.

India, November 20: A suspected terrorist bomb explodes on a train in India.

2007
Hyderabad bombings. Twin bombings kill at least 44 and injure 54 in Hyderabad. Two bombs are diffused and 19 others are found unexploded. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, chief minister of Andhra Pradesh state, blames Islamic militants with ties to Pakistan or Bangladesh, saying that the extremists want to foment tension between India's Hindus and Muslims. Both Bangladesh and Pakistan deny the accusations

Uttar Pradesh serial blasts. Near-simultaneous blasts triggered by militants in court premises in Varanasi, Faizabad, and the state capital kill 15 people and injure more than 80.

2008
Jaipur. A simultaneous bomb blast at eight different sites, including a crowded shopping site and a Hanuman temple, a self-styled Indian Mujahideen, (a collaboration of LeT & SIMI) has claimed responsibility.

Bangalore. A series of nine blasts kills 2 and injures 20 people.

Ahmedabad. A series of seventeen blasts killing 49 and injuring 160 people

Delhi. A series of 5 bombs exploded in Delhi, killing 30 and injuring 90.

Two weeks from the day of serial blasts killing 30, another bomb was detonated in a market in the Mehrauli district killing three and injuring 23.

And now the Mumbai attacks.



WHAT IS THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA DOING??. We as citizens of India who pay taxes need answer. We need response. Pakistani terrorism has reached unbearable proportion. Thousands of innocent Indian lives have been lost. We Indian need answer.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Time to vote none of the above

Is it Time to Vote None of the Above?

In the backdrop of unprecedented mumbai terror attack, Is it time to vote NONE OF THE ABOVE? Often citizens of india have not liked any of the candidates, yet they have either not voted or voted for the lesser evil. I believe it is time to vote NONE OF THE ABOVE. I am attaching an article written in Hindustan Times for everyone to have a look at. NONE OF THE ABOVE is a very powerful tool. It is just not a dissent against the political candidates who are standing in election, but it is a direct message to them that they are not fit to represent us.

http://tinyurl.com/6rshtc

Presently The Constitution Of India has a section that says the following:

"Elector deciding not to vote.-If an elector, after his electoral roll number has been duly entered in the register of voters in Form-17A and has put his signature or thumb impression thereon as required under sub-rule (1) of rule 49L, decided not to record his vote, a remark to this effect shall be made against the said entry in Form 17A by the presiding officer and the signature or thumb impression of the elector shall be obtained against such remark."

This is known as Section 49-O in the Indian Constitution. For more details visit the following link.

http://lawmin.nic.in/ld/subord/cer1.htm

The anger in the streets of India against the political system is rising and it needs to be channelized into something special, really special. I believe that we should bring an option of NONE OF THE ABOVE in the electoral rolls. If the present definition of NONE OF THE ABOVE is vague then it needs to be strenghtned and following provisions should be added.

1. Ability to recall the candidates from all parties if certain percentage of vote is NONE OF THE ABOVE, after that the candidates cannot contest the election till the next assembly is choosen.

2. Ability to call for re-election if the margin of victory for candidates is too low and the number of NONE OF THE ABOVE votes is comparatively high. For example, if a candidate wins an election by a margin of 200 votes and NONE OF THE ABOVE votes in more than 2000 then there should be a run-off. The US Political System has a run-off facility if the margin of victory is too low, though they dont have NONE OF THE ABOVE option.

It is my firm believe that any democracy is as good as the citizens of that democracy. It is the responsibility of the citizens of India to rise and kick some ASS of these politicians and make them pay.

Please spread the work around. I believe that awareness about such an option is very important. Please drop in your comments.